The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Sept. 27, we look at the latest from alt-pop stars Twenty One Pilots and its likelihood of scoring its first No. 1 since its breakout 10 years ago. 

Twenty One Pilots, Breach (Fueled by Ramen): It was almost exactly a decade ago that Twenty One Pilots made the leap from cult favorites to pop stars, as the duo of Tyler Joseph and Josh Dun scored its first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with the blockbuster set Blurryface. The set ultimately spawned two top five hits on the Billboard Hot 100 (“Stressed Out” and “Ride”) and led to the Pilots winning best pop duo/group performance (for “Stressed”) at the 2017 Grammys, cementing it as one of the mid-2010s’ biggest breakout acts.

In the decade since, while Twenty One Pilots has receded from the top 40 spotlight a bit, the duo has remained a top touring act and a consistently successful albums act as well. However, the No. 1 spot has remained elusive for the Pilots since Blurryface: 2018 follow-up Trench got stuck at No. 2 behind Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born soundtrack, while both 2021’s Scaled & Icy and 2024’s Clancy ended up debuting and topping out at No. 3.

Next week, the duo should have a good chance to break that drought. On Sept. 12, Joseph and Dun released Breach, considered the final installment in the conceptual album series fans have followed from the duo since Blurryface. The set was preceded by a pair of singles, “The Contract” and “Drum Show,” both of which have reached the top 25 of Billboard’s Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart.

Though the set should stream respectably — the duo’s biggest 2010s hits are among the most-streamed songs of their era, though their 2020s singles haven’t produced similar numbers — most of the album’s performance will undoubtedly come via sales. To that end, the duo and its Fueled by Ramen label are highly prepared: There are at least 15 vinyl variants available for purchase of Breach, as well as three deluxe CD boxed sets (with extensive packaging and collectible items contained within), a widely available standard CD and both standard and deluxe digital downloads, the latter also containing a bonus track and PDF booklet.

Excitement over the Pilots’ decade-spanning narrative’s final installment, combined with the variety of available physical editions and a relatively slow release week, could result in the duo once again aviating its way to the Billboard 200’s apex.

Ed Sheeran, Play (Gingerbread Man/Atlantic/Warner): Another one of the defining pop acts of the mid-’10s, Ed Sheeran was once considered a near-lock to debut atop the Billboard 200 with every new album, as he did with four consecutive new sets from 2014 to 2021. In recent years, however, his Midas touch on the charts has dulled slightly, and his last two sets — 2023’s – (Minus) and 2024’s Autumn Variations — missed the top spot, while failing to generate the long-lasting hit singles his earlier albums had easily spun off.

Still, Sheeran has remained a stadium-level live act, and has already reached the Hot 100 three times with the advance cuts from his recently released Play album — “Azizam,” “Sapphire” and “Old Phone” — though only “Azizam” reached the top 40, peaking at No. 28. And as Twenty One Pilots finishes its album series, Sheeran starts a new one: Play, advertised as Sheeran’s return to pop after a couple more personal, acoustic LPs, is the first in an expected sequence of albums titled after media control symbols, with Pause, Fast Forward, Rewind and Stop expected to follow.

Play also has a wide variety of physical media options available for fans, including at least 10 vinyl variants, four standard and two deluxe CD variants, and a deluxe edition for digital download and streaming that includes five bonus tracks. Sheeran’s sales numbers on recent releases have not been as robust as those of Twenty One Pilots, and Play has yet to produce a major breakout hit on streaming, so fans will have to show their investment in the singer-songwriter’s return to top 40 pop for him to have a major chance at debuting at No. 1.

KPop Demon Hunters Soundtrack (Visva/Republic): The current bar to clear for albums looking to capture the Billboard 200’s top spot is of course the soundtrack currently reigning at No. 1. KPop Demon Hunters finally captured the top spot last week after a three-month climb — helped by a digital deluxe edition and its first wide release on CD — but its numbers should come back down a bit next week, especially as the set’s many hit songs finally seem to be losing a little steam on streaming. Don’t count HUNTR/X and the Saja Boys out, though — they’ll still likely finish around the top next week, and could still be in the mix to reclaim No. 1 for a good many weeks to come.