For the Geno Smith skeptics, this is all merely confirmation.

Sunday’s punchless offense, which got taken apart by the Indianapolis Colts in a 40-6 thrashing. A withering 1-4 start that feels more like a prelude to a roster overhaul than a storm before the calm. Smith’s league-worst nine interceptions, including five in the last two games. An offensive line that struggled to protect or open holes before left tackle Kolton Miller was sent to injured reserve last week. And now, even Las Vegas Raiders head coach Pete Carroll admitting that he’s having a hard time getting his head around the roughest start to any season in his long and storied career.

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“I’m processing it poorly, to tell you the truth,” Carroll told reporters of the Raiders’ 1-4 start, “[be]cause I did expect to win right out of the chutes.”

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He wasn’t alone, of course. Many looked at Carroll’s ability to invigorate the culture and locker rooms of his teams — both in the NFL and college — and assumed that would translate quickly in Las Vegas. Most forget that his heights in Seattle came after two seasons of finishing with 7-9 records (one of them, remarkably, qualifying for the postseason) and slogging through the end of Matt Hasselbeck’s tenure as a starter. Or that Carroll and general manager John Schneider had signed Matt Flynn as a free agent in March of 2012, with the intent of him being the Seahawks’ starting quarterback.

But the Geno Smith skeptics, who know Carroll’s history in Seattle, also know that Russell Wilson unexpectedly changed the course of that franchise when he was selected in the third round of the 2012 draft. Not only did he take the starting job away from Flynn, he erased what would have likely been the continuation of quarterback failure for Carroll in Seattle, given that Flynn’s NFL career flamed out only two years later after stints with four different teams.

With that in mind, here we are with a faltering Smith, who was once recruited by offensive coordinator Chip Kelly when Kelly was at Oregon, and who Carroll believed would be his quarterback rock over the next three seasons when he was acquired from the Seahawks and signed to a two-year, $75 million tack-on extension through the 2027 season. This despite Smith turning 35 next week and showcasing a noticeable uptick in interceptions last season, when he threw 15 in 17 games and appeared to have a flattened trajectory moving forward.

The difference in the sauce? It was the confidence of Tom Brady, who reportedly preferred Smith over free agent Sam Darnold, who was seeking a deal in excess of $100 million for three years. If Carroll and Brady were on board in unison, then Smith must have something more to offer than what appeared to be some waning years left in his career.

Through five games, the experiment has failed. Part of it can be blamed on the protection of the offensive line, which has repeatedly left Smith scrambling to stay upright. Another part can be blamed on a set of skill position players that badly needs a healthy Brock Bowers at tight end, as he battles a PCL injury and bone bruise that could linger for much of the season. But just as much of it can be attributed to this reality: An aging Smith is not the answer for the Raiders. Just like Jimmy Garoppolo and Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell before him. Instead, he’s another link in a chain of stopgap quaterbacks, destined to become a hurdle rather than a launching pad.

And right about now, it seems that everyone should be looking at Brady again and wondering what comes next. Because the prospects of a postseason run have effectively slipped off the table already, with the rest of the division offering nothing but a tough road and the offensive line in front of Smith not likely to find any resolution to its problems by the end of the season.

It’s a rough reality when you consider it only took Smith 38 seconds into his introductory press conference to spell out what is going to ultimately end up being his demise.

“We’re here to win,” he said. “We’re here to do this thing the right way.”

Well, the Raiders aren’t winning. And if they’re going to do this thing the right way, it’s time for them to start grinding on college quarterbacks and preparing to spend a first-round pick on the position for the first time since taking JaMarcus Russell first overall in the 2007 NFL Draft.

It’s a plunge the Kansas City Chiefs made with Patrick Mahomes in 2017. It’s a commitment the Los Angeles Chargers made with Justin Herbert in 2020. And it’s a decision the Denver Broncos made with Bo Nix in 2024. Now it’s time for the Raiders to make that leap, with as many as six quarterbacks projected to potentially go in the first round of the 2026 draft.

The Raiders could have maneuvered to solve this problem in the 2024 draft, when then-general manager Tom Telesco prioritized building the team out before plugging in a quarterback. They also could have shown the kind of aggression the New York Giants showcased in 2025, trading up from early in the second round into the first, with the target being Jaxson Dart. Once again, they passed.

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None of this is to say some other resolution would have taken the Raiders onto a different path than the one they’re currently grinding through. There’s no guarantee that moving up a few spots for Nix or Michael Penix Jr. or J.J. McCarthy in 2024 would have solved anything. Or that Dart would have injected the Las Vegas franchise with the kind of optimism the Giants have been feeling about Dart. But it would have signaled the Raiders were finally making another sturdy commitment to a quarterback that would hopefully stretch into another decade rather than just another few years. That they’re buying a quarterback to fit in the middle of their culture rather than renting one to help install it.

That’s what Geno Smith is — a rental. Now that has to change. If Tom Brady’s going to be a part of it, that starts now. Because he’s got seven months to meaningfully revive the Raiders at the quarterback spot. And failing to do it now, in the face of what some suspected was coming with Geno Smith, is just falling further behind in the division and reaching back into a history the Raiders haven’t been able to escape since moving to Las Vegas.