When the Las Vegas Raiders face off against the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday, it won’t just be another AFC West battle — it’ll be a test of momentum, discipline, and identity. The Chiefs, as usual, enter the matchup as heavy favorites, riding the steady brilliance of Patrick Mahomes and a defense that’s playing its best football in years. But the Raiders, under fiery head coach Antonio Pierce, have shown grit and defensive resurgence that make them a more dangerous underdog than most expect.

As the two rivals prepare to clash, here’s a full breakdown of picks, predictions, and matchups that could decide who walks away with the win.

• Game: Raiders (3–3) at Chiefs (5–1)

• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

• Broadcast: CBS

The Chiefs are fresh off another statement win, thanks to a defense that continues to complement Mahomes’ creativity on offense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have clawed their way back to .500, fueled by an aggressive defense led by Maxx Crosby and a revitalized Devin White, who’s quickly become the emotional anchor of Las Vegas’ front seven.

Still, history favors Kansas City — the Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Raiders, often by double digits.

1. Patrick Mahomes vs. the Raiders’ Pressure Front

Mahomes has been surgical against pressure this season, ranking top-five in passer rating when blitzed. But the Raiders’ defensive front — featuring Crosby, White, and Malcolm Koonce — has been on a tear. Over the last three games, Las Vegas has recorded 11 sacks and limited opponents to just 18.3 points per game.

If they can collapse the pocket and disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm, this game could stay close longer than Vegas oddsmakers predict.

Still, Mahomes has a knack for adjusting on the fly. His connection with Travis Kelce remains as dangerous as ever, and wideout Rashee Rice has emerged as a reliable secondary target. Expect the Chiefs to use tempo and quick throws early to neutralize Crosby’s pass rush.

2. Aidan O’Connell’s Biggest Test Yet

Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell continues to develop under Pierce’s balanced approach, but he’s yet to face a defense as complex as Kansas City’s. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo thrives on disguising coverages and bringing pressure from unexpected angles — the kind of scheme that can rattle a young QB.

O’Connell’s ability to protect the football will be crucial. The Chiefs rank top five in takeaways, and Arrowhead’s hostile crowd only adds to the challenge. If O’Connell can stay composed and lean on short, quick passes to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders might move the chains — but big plays will be hard to come by.

3. Travis Kelce’s Shadow: Divine Deablo and Marcus Epps

Containing Travis Kelce is easier said than done, but the Raiders’ linebacking unit has been quietly effective in coverage. Expect Las Vegas to bracket Kelce with safety Marcus Epps over the top and linebacker Divine Deablo underneath — forcing Mahomes to test the perimeter.

If the Raiders can hold Kelce under 80 yards and limit third-down conversions, they’ll have a shot to keep things tight into the fourth quarter.

4. The Coaching Chess Match: Pierce vs. Reid

Few matchups contrast coaching styles like Antonio Pierce’s fiery aggression versus Andy Reid’s calm, cerebral play-calling. Pierce has instilled toughness and accountability in his locker room, while Reid’s offensive genius continues to evolve with each passing week.

The key question: will Pierce stay aggressive on defense, or play conservative to avoid giving Mahomes short fields? Blitz too often, and the Chiefs will punish them. Sit back too much, and Mahomes will dissect the coverage methodically.