The King says Prince Harry cannot be a “half-in, half-out” royal. Harry insists he doesn’t want to be one anyway. Nevertheless, something in the royal ecosystem has shifted.

In a flurry of backwards and forwards news stories, beginning to resemble the Harry Hokey Cokey, the question of the Duke of Sussex’s “in or out” role in Britain is back on the agenda. First he made a four-day trip to the UK – widely considered a success – during which he had a cup of tea with his father at Clarence House: a short, formal meeting in a central London residence he was bound to be spotted entering, and confirmed by both the Palace and the Sussex team afterwards.

Within a week, there were briefings to a Sunday tabloid that “high-level” talks were underway to bring the King and the Duke of Sussex together for a “public show of unity”. But royal sources poured cold water on them, saying that, although occasional private meetings were “possible”, the King had been “absolutely clear in upholding his late mother’s decision that there [could] be no ‘half-in, half-out’ public role for members of the family”.

On the face of it, little has changed, unless you are paying attention. In fact, two things can be said more-or-less with certainty: first, that Prince Harry will be coming back to Britain more and more regularly. And, second, the King is willing to be seen reconnecting with his youngest son after a period of 19 months in which the two did not see each other face-to-face.

There is a goal, some say, for the monarch to make an appearance at the Invictus Games, the tournament for wounded military personnel founded by Harry, when it takes place in Birmingham in 2027, in a picture-perfect show of reconciliation.

But, to say there are suspicions about the Duke’s motives in some quarters is an understatement. Quotes from anonymous sources – frequent in the world of royal reporting – containing pointed digs about his brother Prince William have raised alarm bells. (Harry’s visit to the UK earlier this month, a source in the Daily Mail said, “was to remind William that Harry can be there to take some of the load off, given some of the criticism William has received for carrying out a lower number of engagements than his father”.)

Long-term royal watchers here in Britain have raised eyebrows at said sources sowing “seeds of discontent” between the royal households, in an unwelcome return to the shadowy media briefings Prince Harry has so often said he loathes.

In 2020, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex laid out their hopes in writing, explaining that they intended to “carve out a progressive new role within this institution”. They would “work to become financially independent”, they said, while “continuing to honour our duty to the Queen, the Commonwealth, and our patronages” and splitting their time between the US and the UK.

That plan, with all its obvious flaws, was reined in by Queen Elizabeth II, who foresaw the issues of “half-in, half-out” royalty and moved to draw a line.

Five years on, and that line still stands. After Oprah, Netflix, Spare and various forays into the world of podcasting and e-commerce jam, the Sussexes seem settled in the world of Californian celebrity. The working royals, meanwhile, trudge on with engagements on any given wet Wednesday back in Britain, punctuated by cancer treatment, speeches to the nation and visiting Trumps.

“There’s no move to want to be back in the institution,” one source close to Prince Harry says. “He’s genuinely very happy in California. His wife and kids are there; his life is there.”

He is, however, going to come back two or three times a year, potentially quarterly, the source adds, for multi-day trips following the pattern of the last one: engagements with his old patronages and the organisations with which he has kept in touch.

“He would love to come back to the UK more,” says the source. “You couldn’t drag him away from attending the Wellchild Awards [as Harry did during the trip earlier this month].

“[His plans are] driven by the causes that he supports – if they say, ‘We’d really like you to come over, we’re doing this thing’, he will try to make it work. It’s driven by the requests. He would love to do as much as possible.”

Other than the WellChild Awards, which happen in early September each year, there are no other specific events that Harry is planning to come back for at present. And his team will want to group engagements together to make the most of any trip.

As a military veteran, the Duke will do something to mark Remembrance Sunday, though will not be at the Cenotaph with the working Royal family.

Rumours that his children will be educated in Britain are “categorically not true”. Any plans for working trips to Britain would fit around his day-to-day life in California, where he is busy raising two small children; in other words, they won’t come to dominate his schedule for the foreseeable future.

“A lot of stuff happens behind the scenes that people don’t see,” says a source familiar with Harry’s diary. “He speaks to patronages weekly – emails, calls, zoom.” He has taken recent trips to Angola, with the Halo Trust, and China, with Travalyst, his eco-tourism company.

“I think parts of the British press want to believe that I am miserable, but I’m not,” Harry told The Guardian in an interview in Ukraine shortly after his trip to the UK. “I am very happy with who I am and I like the life that I live.”

Moreover, he enjoyed the week in his home country. “I have always loved the UK and I always will love the UK,” he said. “It’s been good to reconnect with the causes I am passionate about… It is hard to do it from far away.”

Engagements saw him balloon-sword fight with a young girl and visit a recording studio in Nottingham. Reporters who went along – mostly part of the mainstream “rota” system the Prince once said he would no longer use – described him as smiling and joking amid cheering crowds.

A source who has worked with Harry’s charities for more than a decade said: “He’s at his happiest, he’s at his best, he’s having the most fun when he’s doing that kind of stuff.”

After years of new ventures – podcast hosting, Netflix producing, a hard-to-explain trip to Colombia – there is an acknowledgement that the old style of royal engagements works. Or, as one source puts it: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” There is an acceptance that the British press can put a much-needed spotlight on his causes, and a new willingness to engage.

It is not all rosy. The Duke lost his security battle with the Home Office and remains concerned about it. (“[There is] no way to win this through the courts”, he conceded after losing in May. “I wish someone had told me that beforehand.”)

He has always said he will not bring his wife and children to the UK until they had guaranteed protection, but unexpectedly seems to have softened on that somewhat. Asked by The Guardian if he wanted to bring Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet, he said: “Yes I would. This week has definitely brought that closer.”

There are also health warnings on the extent of any “reconciliation” with the King. The more cynical in royal circles point to the formality of their meeting at Clarence House, conspicuously scheduled in between official meetings and lasting for just 54 minutes. “It’s no Birkhall,” says one, referring to the King’s cosier and more private Scottish home.

“It’s a test,” warns another bluntly, predicting that courtiers will be keeping a close eye on what Harry says about his father in any interviews, after the Prince was finally trusted to speak to him.

So far, Harry has answered one question about the King with a simple, “Yes, he’s great, thank you”, and a second, more alarmingly given the King’s ongoing cancer treatment, by saying that his focus in the next year “really has to be on my dad”.

It is understood that there is no formal agreement drawn up between the Sussexes and Buckingham Palace about a path forward, despite reports that the Duke and Duchess would “deconflict” their diary with the working royals. The fact that they did not do anything in public during the recent US state visit was out of straightforward “respect for [his] dad”, claims one source, who sees “no conflict” between Harry’s projects and official royal work.

The question of a reunion with Prince William, who, along with his wife, was at the heart of the most scandalous claims in Spare, remains a non-starter. The Prince and Princess of Wales have carried on with their day-to-day engagements.

After visiting bereaved families in Southport on Tuesday, William flew to Scotland where he will spend an informal few days with his father privately. It is the third year they have taken a father-and-son mini-break in Balmoral; not diarised with senior staff, but set aside to chat as sovereign and heir.

The graver, more complicated problem of Prince Andrew and Sarah, Duchess of York, is dominating the news cycle once again.

Some, recalling the period after the Sussexes left the Royal family – the tell-alls, the accusations, the late Queen’s upset over the Oprah interview (“recollections may vary”) while her husband of 73 years was nearing the end of his life – are cautious.

Others would like the King to make Harry’s lack of an official role clearer, with fears that the public will not see the nuance of a 41-year-old man undertaking what looks like his old royal engagements, while also making a living under the title of Prince and Duke elsewhere.

For those who remain fond of Prince Harry, despite disapproving of some of his decisions, a toeing of the line would suffice: as long as he does not drag the Royal family into further drama, the theory goes, there is a world where everyone can live with it.

“My conscience is clear,” Harry has said of his choices.

“There’s no point in continuing to fight anymore,” he has said of his family. “Life is precious.”

Has Prince Harry carved out the “progressive new role” he once hoped for? No. But he is determined to rebuild some sort of role in Britain, nevertheless.