GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals have the same number of wins ahead of Sunday’s game. However, these teams are worlds apart headed into their Week 6 game at Lambeau Field.
The Packers are 14.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. While the line might move following the Bengals’ trade for Joe Flacco, it hadn’t budged within an hour of the deal. Green Bay is a 14-point favorite at DraftKings as well as at BetMGM.
Just how astronomical is that point spread? Since 2000, according to Stathead, Green Bay has been a bigger favorite just once – 16-point front-runners for a 2012 home game against Jacksonville. The Packers won 24-15, meaning they didn’t cover the spread. The only other time they were 14.5-point favorites was for a 2010 home game against Detroit. The Packers beat the Lions 28-26 but didn’t cover that game, either.
As favorites of at least 12 points since the turn of the century, the Packers are 18-1. Their only loss came in 2018, when as 13.5-point favorites they were shocked 20-17 by the Cardinals in the cold at Lambeau Field. Mike McCarthy was fired that evening.
The Flacco trade adds an intriguing layer to the game. The 40-year-old is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the league. Now, Flacco, who was the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback for their upset over the Packers a couple weeks ago, will see Jeff Hafley’s defense again.
“He’s going to get rid of the ball quick,” Hafley said before the Week 3 matchup. “Shoot, when I was with the Browns whenever it was, he was with the Ravens, so we went up against him many times, and now I think it’s Year 17 for him.
“I have a ton of respect for him. He sees the field really well. He can still make all the throws. He gets rid of the ball really fast, so you’re just not going to fool him doing base stuff. He’s going to see it, he’s going to know where to go with the football, so we’re going to have to get more creative and try to figure out ways to not allow him to know what we’re in, so that’s a great challenge and we’re looking forward to that and we’ve practiced really hard this week on trying to do that.”
Cincinnati was considered a preseason Super Bowl contender, but quarterback Joe Burrow’s toe injury, which required surgery, changed everything.
The Bengals won their first two games but have lost their three in blowout fashion. With Jake Browning starting at quarterback, they lost 48-10 at the Vikings in Week 3, 28-3 at the Broncos in Week 4 and 37-24 vs. the Lions in Week 5. Really, none of those games were even that close. Against Minnesota, it was 48-3 after three quarters; against Detroit, it was 28-3 after three quarters.
Of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Browning is 30th in passer rating – even after throwing three garbage-time touchdowns against Detroit. He’s completed 64.5 percent of his passes, averaged 6.10 yards per attempt and thrown eight interceptions. All of those numbers are near the bottom of the league.
Can Flacco ride to the rescue – perhaps as soon as Sunday?
That’s the idea.
Will it matter?
Flacco is last in the NFL with a 60.3 passer rating. He’s next-to-last in completion percentage (58.1), last in yards per attempt (5.09), tied for last in touchdowns (two) and 30th in interceptions (sixth). He is 22nd in air yards per attempt and 29th in air yards per completion.
Of course, those numbers might be skewed a bit by the Browns’ supporting cast. He will throw to much better players in Cincinnati with the premier receiver tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase, even with the disarray at quarterback, has caught 32 passes for 374 yards and three touchdowns. Those figures rank eighth, 10th and 12th, respectively, in the league.
Flacco was part of the Browns’ 13-10 victory over Green Bay in Week 3, though Flacco hardly was a big part of it, though. He was 21-of-36 passing for 142 yards – a feeble 3.94 yards per attempt – with a 55.6 passer rating.
The Bengals enter Week 6 ranked 29th in scoring. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL; Flacco’s lack of mobility won’t help.
“He’s a Super Bowl-winning quarterback,” coach Matt LaFleur said before the game. “He worked with my brother (Mike) a little bit with the Jets and he just raves about the person. He’s one of the purest throwers I’ve ever seen on tape. And, obviously I’ve gone against him a few times, so you got to be really dialed in in terms of your coverage, because it’s going to be tough to fool him. There’s nothing that he hasn’t seen.
“I think a big key is just going to be able to try to get him off the spot, get pressure to him. I always tell our guys, whether it’s our quarterback or anybody else, it’s hard to throw from your back. So, I think that’s going to be critical, but he can make every throw. He’s super intelligent. He throws on time. The ball’s going to come out of his hand. So I just, I’ve got a lot of respect for him.”
If Green Bay’s favorite status remains unchanged – or slightly changed – it will be the second-biggest spread of the year. The Bills were 15.5-point favorites for their 31-19 win over the Saints in Week 4. That’s the only other game with a spread larger than 12 this season.
The Packers are 2-2 against the spread, though they were heavy favorites for the loss at Cleveland and the tie at Dallas.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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