The Phoenix Mercury have their backs against the wall in the WNBA Finals, as they are looking to avoid a 3-0 series deficit in Game 3 at home on Wednesday.

After nearly pulling off an upset in Game 1, the Mercury were blown out in Game 2, losing by double digits to the Las Vegas Aces.

A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young both turned in huge scoring games to give the Aces a 2-0 series lead, and Las Vegas is now 5-1 against Phoenix (including this series) in the 2025 campaign.

Can Alyssa Thomas and company turn things around at home? Oddsmakers at the best betting sites have some faith in the Mercury making this a series, setting them as favorites in Game 3.

Phoenix was 15-7 at home in the regular season, and it has lost just one game (Game 1 against the New York Liberty) at home this postseason.

Here’s a complete breakdown of Game 3, including the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Aces vs. Mercury.

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Wilson is a great prop target in Game 3:

The league MVP turned in a vintage performance in Game 2, scoring 28 points on 13-of-23 shooting from the field to help lead the Aces to a 2-0 series lead.

Wilson is averaging 25.7 points on 20.6 shots per game in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more points in six of her 10 games, including three of her last four matchups. While she did fail to clear this line in Game 1, she also struggled from the field, shooting 7-for-16 overall.

With Phoenix’s desire to push the pace (No. 2 in pace in the playoffs), the Aces are poised to have some high-scoring matchups in this series. Las Vegas has scored 83 or more points in five of the six meetings between these teams this season, and Wilson has 28, 21, 19, 30 and 26 points in the games she’s played against Phoenix. 

There’s no doubt that Wilson is going to be aggressive on the offensive end all series, and if she continues to push 20 shots per game, she’s a must bet at this number. 

I lean with the Aces to cover the spread in this game as road underdogs, but Phoenix has been great at home in 2025 and should have everything on the line in Game 3.

So, instead I’m looking to the total after Games 1 and 2 flew past this number (164).

These teams combined for 173 points in Game 1 and 169 points in Game 2, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another high-scoring game on Wednesday.

The Aces are the No. 1 team in the WNBA Playoffs in effective field goal percentage and offensive rating while the Mercury are No. 4 in effective field goal percentage. After a huge game from beyond the arc in Game 1, the Mercury shot just 5-for-28 from 3 in Game 2 – yet they still found a way to help push this total over.

With the series shifting to Phoenix, I think that’s a good sign for the Phoenix offense, which loves to push the pace (No. 2 in pace in the playoffs) this season.

A fast-paced game naturally leads to some higher-scoring affairs, and the Mercury have struggled to slow down this Las Vegas attack, allowing 83 or more points in each of their last five meetings this season.

If Phoenix is able to win this game, I think it’ll be with a strong offensive showing, so let’s go OVER in Game 3 on Wednesday.