None of the three Democrats who have announced a run for U.S. Senate next year are leading in a statewide poll published Thursday.
Instead, Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has not disclosed her plans for 2026, has a 6-point lead over state Rep. James Talarico of Austin and a 2-1 advantage over Colin Allred, the former Congress member who came up short in a run for the Senate in 2024. Beto O’Rourke, who has twice lost statewide general election races but so far is not running this cycle, is tied with Talarico in the latest poll by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University.
The findings of the survey of 478 registered voters likely to participate in the March 3 Democratic primary show that field in the U.S. Senate race has yet to gel.
Allred, who unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, has been running for Senate since July and had raised more than $4 million in his first three months of campaigning.
Talarico, meanwhile, saw his national profile soar over the summer after appearing on comedian-turned-influencer Joe Rogan’s podcast and then on other national outlets. He raised $6.2 million in the three weeks after his Sept. 10 entrance into the Senate race. A third candidate, former astronaut and newcomer Terry Virts, has not yet released his fundraising numbers for the filing period that ended Sept. 30.
The poll put Crockett’s support at 31% and Talarico and O’Rourke tied with 25%. Farther back in Allred with 13%. Virts’ name was not included because of his low name identification, said Rice University professor Mark Jones, one of the poll managers. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
If the race were between only Allred and Talarico, the poll found the former Dallas congressman leading 46% to 42%. Black voters preferred Allred by a more than 2-1 margin while Talarico had the edge with white and Hispanic voters, the poll found.
Crockett and Talarico are considered rising stars in the Democratic Party, which has not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994. By entering the race for Senate, Talarico is foregoing a reelection run in his safely Democratic Texas House district anchored by Austin. Crockett would have to give up her seat in the U.S. House to run statewide. However, her district was redrawn this by the Republican Legislature in August and includes areas of North Texas that she has not previously represented.
If Crockett does decide to run for Senate, it would make the already expensive Democratic primary even more so. She had nearly $4 million in her campaign account as of June 30, meaning she would likely have a running start in the money chase. Her report for the period ended Sept. 30 is due Oct. 15.
The 30-day candidate filing period for the March 3 primaries starts Nov. 8.
Moritz has covered state government and politics, including the Texas Legislature and the governor’s since the 1990s. In addition, he has covered several natural disasters and mass violence events.
