LeBron James: The ‘Forever King’ Has Conquered It All—But What’s His Next Move?

Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday, breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason. Today, we look at LeBron James.

Basketball is a numbers game. We try to contextualize the sport and use advanced statistics to gain a better understanding of what has happened, but in the end, the team that scores more points wins.

When looking at sheer numbers, LeBron James stands alone.

Let’s start with 23. It’s the jersey number he has worn for most of his career, an homage to Michael Jordan and an indicator of the impossible standards he’s had to live up to. The number 23 also now indicates the season he’s about to enter.

No other player in the 80-season history of the NBA has ever played that long. Others who’ve gotten close, like Vince Carter and Dirk Nowitzki, were shells of themselves at that stage. Carter was riding the bench, averaging five points a game. Nowitzki wasn’t much better, playing in 51 games and scoring 7.3 points per night.

LeBron, on the other hand, was still an All-NBA player last season, averaging 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game.

However, the gradual decline of LeBron is still occurring.

His rebounds and assists are still above his career averages, but the tape does not lie. The more you watch James, the more you see the old LeBron and not the old LeBron. The bounce is missing. The Akron Hammer slams the ball less and less and his “head near the top of the backboard” days are past him.

Defensively, his ceiling is still reachable if he must. But his floor is embarrassing and nothing near his Heatles era.

Back in the day, the conversations centered on what LeBron had to do to lead a team to a title. Now, the conversations are about taking more responsibility off his plate and giving the keys of the organization to Luka Dončić.

Still, LeBron isn’t on his victory lap. In fact, he very well might walk away before that ever happens.

So, what can be expected from the Forever King? What can the Chosen One, who has done it all, be realistically asked to do as he enters the final season of his contract and maybe, the end of tenure in Los Angeles?

What is his best-case scenario?

 

Betting against LeBron has been a losing proposition for over two decades now. James has proven time and time again that just when you think he’s cooked, he’s the one putting teams in the blender.

With Luka now secured as his running mate, this could be the best last chance LeBron has at a title. Perhaps this can invigorate him and he continues to mentor Luka and lead by example, establishing the standard for championship-level readiness on this team.

LeBron remains an All-Star, plays at an All-NBA level once again and, thanks to his spectacular play, the Lakers are a top-four seed and one of the most dangerous teams in the Western Conference.

With another year under head coach JJ Redick’s system, and if an effort is made to have LeBron more off the ball, perhaps he’ll get even more looks at 3-pointers.

Redick hasn’t made it a secret that he loves the deep ball, and with him recently receiving a contract extension, it’s clear that his basketball philosophy will be the way forward for the Lakers.

Last year, LeBron shot 37% from 3-point range. If he replicates that efficiency or maybe even gets back to 40% from deep, that would be an ideal scenario.

Defensively, he has his moments, but overall, he plays at a baseline that is acceptable. When big games show up and the stakes are high, he is not a detriment on that side of the ball.

With Luka carrying a larger offensive load and Austin Reaves stepping up, LeBron can conserve his energy and pace himself better, even in the games he plays.

Now, he’s more like a luxurious sports car you use to its fullest capacity on a special day instead of a daily driver you run into the ground, giving it nothing more than an oil change and the occasional tire rotation.

LeBron is 40 years old and he certainly doesn’t play like it. However, his age is factored into his minutes and off days, and the Lakers balance keeping him fresh and ready for a heavier workload during the playoff months.

Ultimately, the Lakers aren’t a perfect team, but one thing you can count on is LeBron’s production. For the majority of the season, fans are thrilled he’s on the team and can point to multiple games that should’ve been losses that Lebron turned into wins by simply being the best player on the floor for stretches at a time.

What is his worst-case scenario?

 

The fall off is here. Whether it’s age, uncertainty of the future, a lack of desire or a combination of all three, LeBron has never looked worse. His defense plummets and it doesn’t matter how much it gets discussed, he doesn’t step up to challenges anymore during a regular season he’s mainly trying to just manage through.

Offensively, he can still score better than most, but he can’t get into the paint as easily. So, he’s settling for more mid-range jumpers and his effectiveness in that department is a mixed bag.

There have already been gradual signs of this. On shots taken inside the 3-point line, but not at the rim, LeBron’s attempts have increased from 502 during the 2023-24 season to 598 last year.

His 3-point shot is okay, but not a strength. Now, a 30-point game from LeBron is a celebration and an uncommon event. By the end of the season, the question becomes more about whether the Lakers even want LeBron back, more than whether he even wants to return.

With James being an expiring contract and questions about the future, maybe this is how it ends for one of the all-time greats. LeBron stayed one year too many.

Now, instead of a fadeaway into the sunset, he flames out and calls it quits.

What is his most likely role on the team?

 

There was plenty of talk about Anthony Davis taking over the Lakers, but that never really happened. This might be the season where LeBron takes a backseat to someone for the first time in his career.

Even if he does don’t expect a huge drop off, LeBron is still a three-level scorer, is in incredible shape and his Olympic run and last year’s production are clear indicators that he’s still one of the most dominant players in the game.

Expect him to be a starter, a star, and, at worst, the second-best player on the Lakers. LeBron will still be a big part of this team’s success and they’ll only go deep in the playoffs if he keeps his Superman cape handy and ready for action in April, May and June.

Of all the concerns the Lakers have this season — perimeter defense, bench scoring, center play — James is not one of them.

LeBron is a known quantity. He is one of the most competitive, disciplined and hard-working players this game has ever seen. Waiting for a fall off? Stay in line. It’s been building since he graced the Sports Illustrated cover back in 2002 and he still remains at the epicenter of the NBA zeitgeist.

He’s not still relevant because of salacious quotes or due to his name carrying more fame than substance. LeBron matters because when you make a list of the best players in the game today, you don’t jot down many before you have to place him on it.

That’s been true for 22 seasons, and expect it to be true for Year 23 of No. 23.

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