Texas Democrats are all abuzz about the potential for Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett to run for U.S. Senate, the marquee race in Texas next year. Some analysts, Democrats and Republicans have told CBS News Texas that if she enters the race, it will provide a real jolt to the Democratic Primary and perhaps the general election.
Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at SMU in Dallas, told CBS News Texas, “All polling suggests she would be very competitive in the Democratic primary, that she would be a major contender for the Democratic nomination, and she certainly has a devoted following, not only in Texas, but nationally. So, I think she would be able to raise a decent amount of money to make a bid for that nomination.”
If Crockett enters the statewide race, she will join former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred and State Representative James Talarico, of Austin, whose campaign has also attracted national attention.
Wilson said, “Certainly, I think Colin Allred, James Talarico would prefer to see her not get into the race. That’s something that they would have to reckon with, with her as a formal contender. But of course, the calculus for her is not really about winning the Democratic primary. It’s if she were to win the Democratic nomination, how credible would her chances be in the general election, and that’s perhaps a different story.”
In a poll conducted between late September and Oct. 1 by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, Crockett topped a hypothetical Democratic primary match-up with 31%. Talarico and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who is not running, tied for second place with 25%. Allred had 13% and 6% were unsure.
When it came to a potential general election race, all three potential Republicans, incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Houston Congressman Wesley Hunt, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton came out on top of Crockett.
“I wouldn’t, if I were her, take it for granted that she would win the Democratic primary,” Wilson said. “Certainly, she’s going to be a viable contender, but there are other viable contenders who have already thrown their hats in the ring. Colin Allred has experience running a statewide campaign. That’s something that Congresswoman Crockett does not have. Also, both Allred and Talarico, I think, would press very vigorously electability arguments against Jasmine Crockett. I think their arguments would be that they have a better chance of actually winning the seat for the Democrats than does Congresswoman Crockett. I wouldn’t take it as a foregone conclusion that she would win the Democratic primary if she gets in, although she would be a very strong and formidable contender.”
Candidates in Texas have until Dec. 8 to file their campaign paperwork for the March 3 primary.
