As fresh economic warning signs pile up, the Trump White House has settled on a simple strategy: insist the economy is thriving, repeat it louder, and hope the math stops mattering. But a growing body of data — and increasingly blunt fact-checks from inside conservative media spaces — suggests the façade is beginning to collapse.

Vice President JD Vance recently toured Allentown, Pennsylvania, a city directly affected by Trump-era trade and tariff policies. When asked to grade the current economy, Vance didn’t hesitate. He gave it an “A++++.” The response raised immediate eyebrows, not least because administration officials have simultaneously blamed former President Joe Biden for lingering inflation — even while claiming economic perfection under Trump. The contradictions are becoming harder to ignore.

White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt soon added fuel to the confusion, confidently misstating inflation figures during a briefing. When pressed, she cited “average” inflation rates to suggest prices had meaningfully declined. Economists quickly noted the sleight of hand: blending pre- and post-policy periods to create a friendlier narrative. Critics likened the logic to claiming a 40-year-old is “basically 20” if you average their age with childhood.

The narrative fracture widened during a high-profile interview at the DealBook Summit, where Trump’s Treasury Secretary attempted to frame inflation as largely a “blue-state problem.” The claim unraveled in real time. Data from the Joint Economic Committee showed that, over the past four years, inflation has hit red states hardest — with Florida leading the list. The attempt to cherry-pick timelines only underscored how aggressively the administration has tried to shape perception rather than confront reality.

Enter Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times bestselling author and financial journalist, whose new book 1929 examines the conditions leading up to the greatest economic crash in U.S. history. Sorkin didn’t mince words. What he’s seeing now, he warned, is an administration “jawboning” markets toward desired outcomes, regardless of facts. Grand investment announcements, he explained, often dissolve under scrutiny. Of the $23 trillion in foreign and corporate investment the Trump administration has publicly touted, credible analyses suggest only a fraction — perhaps $7 trillion — may ever materialize

The pattern is familiar: big promises, vague timelines, and constantly shifting definitions. China was supposed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by year’s end. With days left, purchases sat closer to 300,000 tons. When questioned, officials quietly redefined “end of the year” to mean “the growing season,” extending the deadline indefinitely.

Sorkin draws chilling parallels to the late 1920s, when seductive illusions of endless growth masked dangerous levels of leverage. Then, as now, new technologies fueled hype. Today it’s artificial intelligence. Back then, it was radio. What worries economists most isn’t innovation — it’s debt. Massive borrowing has moved off traditional bank balance sheets into shadowy private credit markets, making risk harder to track and easier to ignore

Even corporate behavior is changing. Major firms are increasingly structuring financial deals to hide leverage, converting capital expenditures into long-term lease arrangements to keep liabilities off their books. These tactics may satisfy quarterly earnings calls, but they raise red flags for anyone watching systemic risk.

Meanwhile, ordinary Americans are feeling the squeeze. Inflation continues to outpace wages. Housing, healthcare, education, and transportation costs have surged. Job losses are climbing. Unemployment has ticked upward. For millions living paycheck to paycheck, the economic pain is not theoretical — it’s relentless.

Sorkin warns that this moment represents something new: state-influenced capitalism, where corporate strategy increasingly revolves around appeasing a single political figure. CEOs appear eager to announce massive investments — not to markets or shareholders, but to an audience of one. The danger, he argues, isn’t just economic distortion, but a gradual erosion of accountability

This doesn’t guarantee a crash on the scale of 1929. But the warning signs are unmistakable. Illusions, when left unchallenged, have a way of shattering — and history shows the fallout rarely spares those least prepared.